A few thoughts on the 2024 Republican Ioawa Caucus

The results of the Iowa Caucus 2024 show an interesting dynamic in the Republican primary campaign:

Donald Trump’s 51.0% win reaffirms his strong position. However, I believe he would have done worse in better weather, more on that below. In any case, the result is an indication that his support is solid but not unshakeable. Personally, I put his chances of winning the nomination at 51% at the moment, the show is not over yet.

An interesting side note: This year, around 110,000 voters participated in the #IowaCaucuses, compared to nearly 190,000 in 2016. Back then, Trump received over 45,000 votes (24.3%). This time, he got about 56,000 (51%). This should be considered when interpreting the results, especially Trump’s.

Vivek Ramaswamy, who scored 7.7%, has since withdrawn and announced his support for Trump, which probably gives Trump his three delegate votes and some tailwind for the rest of the primaries. Personally, I’m glad Ramaswamy is out, I think he’s a dangerous muddlehead.

Ron DeSantis’ second place finish at 21.2% is a surprise to me, I would have expected him at around 16%. Had he done even worse, it could have been the end of his campaign. In any case, this result was crucial to his staying in the race.

Nikki Haley’s result of 19.2% is no surprise in my view, but I would not have expected her to be behind DeSantis. Her result may have suffered particularly from the freezing weather in Iowas, which may have affected her support among women and moderate voters or one-day Republicans.

Overall, the top candidates Trump, Haley and DeSantis remain in the race, though I still see Trump and Haley as having the best chances.

Image: Midjourney AI





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