Lula increased his nationwide runoff share from 50.90% in 2022 to 51.79% in 2026. Yet among comparable municipal areas, 278 changed from Lula to Bolsonaro, while only 31 moved the other way. The explanation is straightforward: municipalities carry very different numbers of votes.
The comparison spans two elections with different opponents. In 2022, Lula faced Jair Bolsonaro. In 2026, he faced Jair’s son Flávio Bolsonaro. “Bolsonaro” in this analysis therefore refers to the respective candidacy, rather than the same person in both elections.
Losing municipal majorities does not necessarily mean losing national share
Of the 5,568 comparable domestic reporting units, Lula won both runoffs in 2,844 and the Bolsonaro candidate won both in 2,412. Another 278 moved from Lula to Bolsonaro and 31 moved from Bolsonaro to Lula. Three comparisons involved a tie in one of the two years.
Each municipality counts once in that list. In the national total, every vote counts. A large gain in a few populous places can outweigh losses in many smaller ones. Even in an area a candidate loses, a higher share can reduce the opponent’s margin and improve the national result.
Lula gained most in the Federal District and Amapá
Among the states and Federal District, Lula’s largest increase was in the Distrito Federal: 4.54 percentage points. Amapá followed with 4.24 points, Acre with 3.73 and Roraima with 3.62. Lula still trailed Bolsonaro substantially in Acre and Roraima. An improvement is not the same as a majority.
In Rio de Janeiro state, Lula’s share increased from 43.47% to 46.90%. In populous São Paulo state, it rose from 44.76% to 46.15%. Bolsonaro still won both in 2026, but Lula’s higher shares narrowed the gap there.
Some previous strongholds weakened
Lula’s largest state-level decline was in Tocantins, from 51.36% to 48.63%, changing the winner. His share also fell below its 2022 level in Maranhão, Rio Grande do Sul, Ceará, Piauí, Mato Grosso and Goiás.
Among municipalities with at least 50,000 valid votes in the 2026 runoff, notable gains included Rio Branco, at 5.96 percentage points; Macapá, at 5.91; and Manaus, at 5.44. Lula lost 6.66 points in Balsas and 6.28 in Itaituba. The fixed size threshold prevents very small places from dominating this selection.
Comparing candidates does not measure individual loyalty
Between elections, people become eligible to vote, move, participate or stay away. The change from Jair to Flávio Bolsonaro also matters, as does the political context. The results therefore describe changes in geographical outcomes, not proof that particular individuals stayed loyal or changed sides.
Vote share and vote count also need to be distinguished when reading the map. One percentage point in São Paulo represents far more votes than one point in a small state. Our absolute regional vote balances and income comparison complement this historical view.
Data and method
We compare only the 2022 and 2026 presidential runoffs, using valid votes. Boa Esperança do Norte, Sorriso and Nova Ubiratã were excluded from the municipal comparison because of territorial reorganisation, leaving 5,568 common domestic units. State and national comparisons use their complete results for each year. Changes are expressed in percentage points. This matching does not fully control for every smaller boundary adjustment, so fine-grained local changes should be interpreted cautiously.
Sources: TSE official results portal; Official runoff data; TSE results for 2022; IBGE on territorial reorganisation.
English edition of our German-language analysis.
Data as of 26 October 2026. Calculations and graphics: severint.info. Presidential election only. Figures may not add exactly because of rounding.
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